The Art of the Probable" addresses the history of scientific ideas, in particular the emergence and development of mathematical probability. But it is neither meant to be a history of the exact sciences per se nor an annex to, say, the Course 6 curriculum in probability and statistics. Rather, our objective is to focus on the formal, thematic, and rhetorical features that imaginative literature shares with texts in the history of probability. These shared issues include (but are not limited to): the attempt to quantify or otherwise explain the presence of chance, risk, and contingency in everyday life; the deduction of causes for phenomena that are knowable only in their effects; and, above all, the question of what it means to think and act rationally in an uncertain world. Our course therefore aims to broaden students’ appreciation for and understanding of how literature interacts with--both reflecting upon and contributing to--the scientific understanding of the world. We are just as centrally committed to encouraging students to regard imaginative literature as a unique contribution to knowledge in its own right, and to see literary works of art as objects that demand and richly repay close critical analysis. It is our hope that the course will serve students well if they elect to pursue further work in Literature or other discipline in SHASS, and also enrich or complement their understanding of probability and statistics in other scientific and engineering subjects they elect to take.

The ability to ask and answer questions while reading is essential to comprehension. This article discusses instructional strategies used to teach questioning and provides many online resources. The article appears in the free, online magazine Beyond Weather and the Water Cycle, which explores the seven essential principles of the climate sciences for teachers in k-grade 5 classrooms.

This professional development article identifies resources that show young learners (K-grade 5) how scientists study Earth's climate and make predictions. The online lessons either allow students to collect and analyze data or learn about tools and technologies that make data collection possible. The lessons are aligned with national content standards for science education. The article appears in the free, online magazine Beyond Weather and the Water Cycle, which examines the recognized essential principles of climate literacy and the climate sciences for elementary teachers and their students.

Coyote tales are part of the Paiute oral tradition used to teach proper behavior and values from an early age. These stories are only told during the winter time. The Coyote illustrates the mischievous nature in all of us. This lesson the Paiute tale, Coyote and Duck to enhance comprehension and prediction skills of students. It also helps students become familiar with cultural storytelling and its importance in Native cultures. Students will have a brief introduction to the Paiute Indian Tribe of Utah (PITU) and its location in Utah. The lesson includes a discussion about Native American regalia and explicitly addresses stereotypes. 

This video segment adapted from NOVA tells the tragic story of two Japanese seismologists who disagreed about the threat of earthquakes in the early twentieth century. Today, seismologists in California offer residents a probability of risk that an earthquake might occur.

Each issue of the free, online magazine Beyond Weather and the Water Cycle explores an essential principle of climate science and climate literacy with background information, lessons, activities, original stories, and more for the K-5 classroom. This article shows the alignment of these materials with the content standards of the National Science Education Standards.

From this original story, young readers and listeners learn about four tools scientists use to study climate - climate stations, weather balloons, satellites, and buoys. The story is available at two reading levels and in three formats - text-only, illustrated booklet, and electronic book. Glossary included. Each issue of Beyond Weather and the Water Cycle contains an original story that expands on the theme.

This article discusses the reading instruction strategy of predicting and shows how it applies to science learning in the elementary school grades. It appears in the free online magazine Beyond Weather and the Water Cycle, which provides a first introduction to the Seven Essential Principles of Climate Literacy.

How did scientists figure out the structure of atoms without looking at them? Try out different models by shooting light at the atom. Check how the prediction of the model matches the experimental results.

This video segment adapted from NOVA relates the dramatic story of vulcanologists trying to predict the timing of the cataclysmic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines.

This lesson utilizes the experience-text-relationship method to enhance comprehension and prediction skills of the story "Coyote and the Rolling Stone," a traditional tale shared by the Confederated Tribes of the Goshute Reservation. It also helps students become familiar with cultural storytelling and its importance in Native cultures. Students will have a brief introduction to the Confederated Tribes of the Goshute Reservation and its location in Utah. The lesson includes an experience-eliciting discussion/activity, a discussion about the students' reading of the story, and a discussion relating students' experiences to the content of the story.

Prediction is at the heart of almost every scientific discipline, and the study of generalization (that is, prediction) from data is the central topic of machine learning and statistics, and more generally, data mining. Machine learning and statistical methods are used throughout the scientific world for their use in handling the "information overload" that characterizes our current digital age. Machine learning developed from the artificial intelligence community, mainly within the last 30 years, at the same time that statistics has made major advances due to the availability of modern computing. However, parts of these two fields aim at the same goal, that is, of prediction from data. This course provides a selection of the most important topics from both of these subjects.

Berlioz the Bear, written and illustrated by Jan Brett. Berlioz the bear and his fellow musicians are due to play for the town ball when their bandwagon becomes stuck in a hole in the road. A strange buzzing in Berlioz's double bass turns into the surprise that saves the day.

The Robbery at the Diamond Dog Diner, written and illustrated by Eileen Christelow. Lola Dog doesn't wear her usual diamonds at the Diamond Dog Diner after she hears there are jewel thieves in town but she doesn't take into account Glenda Feathers loud talk about where Lola hides her jewels.

The Robbery at the Diamond Dog Diner, written and illustrated by Eileen Christelow. Lola Dog doesn't wear her usual diamonds at the Diamond Dog Diner after she hears there are jewel thieves in town but she doesn't take into account Glenda Feathers loud talk about where Lola hides her jewels.

The Robbery at the Diamond Dog Diner, written and illustrated by Eileen Christelow. Lola Dog doesn't wear her usual diamonds at the Diamond Dog Diner after she hears there are jewel thieves in town but she doesn't take into account Glenda Feathers loud talk about where Lola hides her jewels.

The Robbery at the Diamond Dog Diner, written and illustrated by Eileen Christelow. Lola Dog doesn't wear her usual diamonds at the Diamond Dog Diner after she hears there are jewel thieves in town but she doesn't take into account Glenda Feathers loud talk about where Lola hides her jewels.

The Robbery at the Diamond Dog Diner, written and illustrated by Eileen Christelow. Lola Dog doesn't wear her usual diamonds at the Diamond Dog Diner after she hears there are jewel thieves in town but she doesn't take into account Glenda Feathers loud talk about where Lola hides her jewels.

The Robbery at the Diamond Dog Diner, written and illustrated by Eileen Christelow. Lola Dog doesn't wear her usual diamonds at the Diamond Dog Diner after she hears there are jewel thieves in town but she doesn't take into account Glenda Feathers loud talk about where Lola hides her jewels.

Video clips from federal and regional agencies show scientists at work with tools used to collect data about the climate and weather. This article, from the free, online magazine Beyond Weather and the Water Cycle, will help students visualize the tools and how they are used in the atmosphere, at sea, and other hard-to-access locations.